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HomeEconomicsMacro Briefing: 5 June 2023

Macro Briefing: 5 June 2023


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* Biden signs debt ceiling bill into law and averts US default
* Fitch may downgrade US credit rating despite debt-ceiling resolution
* Wave of new US Treasuries sales will be stress test for liquidity
* “We don’t yet see a significant slowdown in lending,” says IMF chief
* Expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2023 fade as economy stays resilient
* OPEC+ will extend oil production cuts to support crude’s price
* US employment surged in May–largest monthly gain since January
* Small-cap stocks may shine if US recession risk fades
* US stock market (S&P 500) rallied to 9-month high on Friday:

Is the US already in recession? Yes, according to gross domestic income (GDI), which contrasts with the relatively upbeat profile via gross domestic product (GDP), the more popular measure of economic activity. Optimists also cite the resilient labor market, which continues to post solid gains that defy recession worries. “If you look at the early 2000s, that was what was called a ‘jobless recovery,’ because employment took a long time to come back even though the economy was growing,” says Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “This time around it could be the opposite—the economy could be contracting, but you’re not seeing job losses.”

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